Plausibly Postulated Prophecies
Dec 28, 2025
We make our big Linux predictions for 2026, but first, we score how we did for 2025.
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Links:
- 💥 Gets Sats Quick and Easy with Strike
- 📻 LINUX Unplugged on Fountain.FM
- LinuxFest Northwest 2026: Call for Speakers
- The Launch 🚀: Nature Chose Violence
- PewDiePie - I installed Linux (so should you)
- James Lee - How I Broke up with Adobe
- Linux surpasses 5% market share on US desktops for the first time
- It is finally the year of Linux on the Desktop: free OS reaches 5% market share
- Introducing the Red Hat Ansible Lightspeed intelligent assistant
- ADHD is Awesome: A Guide To (Mostly) Thriving With ADHD: Holderness, Penn, Holderness, Kim, Edward Hallowell: 9781400338610
- Pick: eilmeldung TUI RSS Reader — A terminal-based RSS reader built on the news-flash backend.
- Pick: Zbridge — zBridge is an online bridge club where you can learn and play bridge. It is a full bridge platform with multiple features.
- Zbridge flatpak source
- Pick: Cavalier — Visualize audio with CAVA
Transcript
WEBVTT
00:00:11.092 --> 00:00:15.972
Hello, friends, and welcome back to your weekly Linux talk show. My name is Chris.
00:00:16.112 --> 00:00:16.812
My name is Wes.
00:00:16.992 --> 00:00:17.692
And my name is Brent.
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Hello, gentlemen, and joining us as referee this week, it's our friendly editor, Drew. Hello, Drew.
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Welcome to the Thunderdome.
00:00:26.952 --> 00:00:27.712
Uh-oh.
00:00:27.972 --> 00:00:30.892
That's a little indication of how it's going to go today. Today,
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we are owning up to our 2025 predictions. We'll see how we did.
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And then we're going to make bold and powerful 2026 predictions.
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So don't miss that. Then we're going to round out the show with some really
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great booze, some pics, and a lot more.
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This is where I'd say hello, Mumble Room, but shout out to those of you that
00:00:47.932 --> 00:00:49.412
are up there in the quiet listening right now.
00:00:49.832 --> 00:00:51.872
Look at them. Look at them.
00:00:52.052 --> 00:00:53.572
Listening so quietly.
00:00:53.752 --> 00:00:55.932
So quietly. If only my kids could be that quiet.
00:00:55.932 --> 00:00:56.552
I don't hear them.
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I know. Because they're in there quiet listening. Hello to all of you that join
00:00:59.972 --> 00:01:03.972
us in that live Mumble Room. Going every single Sunday that we do this here show.
00:01:05.378 --> 00:01:08.878
And a big good morning to our friends at Defined Networking.
00:01:09.538 --> 00:01:13.998
Defined.net slash unplugged. Go check out Managed Nebula.
00:01:14.358 --> 00:01:18.498
This is what you want to build on. It's a decentralized VPN that is built on
00:01:18.498 --> 00:01:21.598
top of the open source Nebula project that we already trust and love.
00:01:21.698 --> 00:01:23.218
It's out there. It's fully open source.
00:01:23.938 --> 00:01:27.618
But here's the real difference with Nebula. There isn't a free tier that exists
00:01:27.618 --> 00:01:31.858
to funnel you into some sort of VC-funded SaaS roadmap that's being developed.
00:01:32.238 --> 00:01:35.618
Right? So when a networking tool reaches a certain venture scale,
00:01:35.738 --> 00:01:39.318
let's call it, the business eventually competes with the free product,
00:01:39.878 --> 00:01:42.858
especially if there's a free tier. We all have seen the way this goes.
00:01:43.798 --> 00:01:47.718
We've seen the way this goes. With Nebula, you own the network.
00:01:47.918 --> 00:01:52.098
You own identity, routing, and the control stays with you.
00:01:52.678 --> 00:01:57.578
Not a third-party control plane that you don't control. You control everything.
00:01:57.698 --> 00:02:01.358
And Nebula's decentralized design means that no single point of failure is going
00:02:01.358 --> 00:02:04.818
to impact you. And the optional self-hosted Lighthouse nodes means that you
00:02:04.818 --> 00:02:06.938
keep discovery in your hands.
00:02:07.558 --> 00:02:09.378
That's so sweet. It's how you
00:02:09.378 --> 00:02:12.978
want to build when you're building your home infra or your business infra.
00:02:13.518 --> 00:02:16.038
Nebula was originally built to connect Slack's global infrastructure.
00:02:16.038 --> 00:02:20.858
So it was designed from the beginning to scale and perform so it can work for
00:02:20.858 --> 00:02:23.478
your lab and it can work for your global corporation.
00:02:23.718 --> 00:02:28.578
Go get 100 hosts for free right now. Support the show. No credit card required. No lock-in.
00:02:28.798 --> 00:02:33.838
Go to defined.net slash unplugged. That's define.net slash unplugged.
00:02:34.218 --> 00:02:38.138
Go support the show and check out Managed Nebula.
00:02:38.838 --> 00:02:43.318
Now, gentlemen, we have a little bit of housekeeping to get into before we start with predictions.
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It's that time of year again. If you can believe it, the call for papers for
00:02:49.598 --> 00:02:53.438
LinuxFest Northwest 2026 ends in just a couple of days.
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December 31st, 2025.
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You going to get a talk in, Wes?
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Oh, boy. Well, I better go quick.
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I swear, like, years are getting shorter or something. It feels like we just did this.
00:03:05.078 --> 00:03:09.358
I know, right? I know. It's crazy. LinuxFest Northwest is back in April,
00:03:09.518 --> 00:03:14.578
the 24th to the 26th, 2026 at Bellingham Technical College. and I believe that
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big area is going to be back available to us again.
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Oh, nice.
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Yeah.
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It was a great time last year.
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It was nice. If you can believe it, that's only 117 days away,
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which means if you include holidays in this, except for U.S.
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federal holidays, that's 82 business days away, which makes it 16 Linux unplugs
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away, which means Brent needs to be on the road by episode 660.
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I really appreciate how you give me the heads up because I need it.
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Oh, boost in your bet by which episode he actually hits the road.
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And which route should I take?
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You better. Also, if you want to catch up on how the van, or a.k.a.
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the bang bus, is doing, Brent stopped by the launch episode 46 at weeklylaunch.rocks.
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Nature chose violence, and Brent tells quite the tale, which I appreciated.
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Also, I talk a little bit about the flooding that hit the Pacific Northwest.
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You've been a local weatherman.
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It was quite the thing, Wes. I became an island is what happened.
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I became an island for real.
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So that is weeklylaunch.rocks and episode 46 for that.
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And we'll have a link to the LinuxFest Northwest 2026 call for speakers if that interests you.
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All right, gentlemen, it is time for predictions past. Before we get into how 2026 is going to go.
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You're making us make good on it.
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We got to see how we did for 2025.
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Did anyone else completely forget their predictions from last year?
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Yes.
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I only remembered one of mine and the others. I feel like it wasn't even me
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who wrote those or committed to those. But there's evidence, right, somewhere?
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There is evidence. In fact, we have audio on tape.
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So let's start with Brent's first prediction. For 2025.
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I believe in 2025, we will see a commercially available machine be released
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using RISC-V from major vendors.
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That's not my best prediction sentence, got to say. Machine is not very good.
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Yeah, Drew, you should have caught me on that.
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Well, I wasn't judging last year, so that's not on me.
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Well, we needed you. I'm nervous about this one.
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For those that are new to the show, Drew is here to play referee to make sure
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that we have good, solid predictions that should be measurable by the next year.
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And so this is a tricky one, ref. I think we might have to start with right away.
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I think you could call this technically true in the sense that Meta,
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in March of 2025, started deploying their custom AI and training inference chips
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built around RISC-V in their data center.
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And in late 2025, the Coral MPU officially released the Coral MPU from Google that is RISC-V based.
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I guess you could kind of consider that. But there's a few other like large
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data center implementations of RISC-V this year that didn't exist in 2024.
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So I asked the AI bot, and I want to hear what you think about this, Drew.
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The AI bot says that the prediction correctly identified an inflection point
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as of late December 2025, RISC-V has reached an estimated 25% market penetration
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in the semiconductor industry,
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largely due to major vendors abandoning expensive ARM licenses in favor of custom RISC-V silicon.
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So when Brent said a commercially available machine using RISC-V from a major
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vendor will be released, what do you think, Ref? Did he get it right?
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So here's the tricky part, custom.
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All right. So these guys are making their own risk five boards.
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Is that correct? Or are they selling them?
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Mm hmm.
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I believe you do have them on a technicality there. I think they may be at least
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having them manufactured on their behalf.
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Yeah. So for it to be commercially available, it needs to be sold from one company to another.
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That can't be an in-house product.
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Mm hmm. I think that's fair. It's not commercially available.
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It's privately available.
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So yeah, if you can tell me a company that is commercially producing these and
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selling them, it's a win. If you can't, it's a loss.
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I think this was a failure in describing my prediction, I will say.
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So I remember the sort of intention for this prediction was specifically around desktop computers.
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So when I use the word machine in saying a commercially available machine,
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I should have said a commercially available like desktop or tablet or single. Exactly.
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So I was thinking more available for the consumer market.
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Okay.
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So if we take it from that perspective, I do recall that the framework did make
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available a RISC-V board.
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but I think I'm going to fail myself on that from a technicality unless anyone
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else can help me win this one because that was announced February 4th,
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and our episode was February 5th, so I feel like it's not fair to make a prediction
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that happened the day before.
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Oh, you didn't have to out yourself.
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I'm the honest one here.
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So it was announced.
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Yeah, the day before the episode. He didn't know about it, but it was technically
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public information the day before the episode.
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At least for my limited research, which is, yeah, that's not fair.
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You know, I'd say, are we doing half points?
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Wow.
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I could get behind half points. If Wes doesn't object, I could get behind a
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half point. We could do that, like a .5.
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Okay, yeah. All right, we'll be generous this year. It is the holidays.
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It is the holidays.
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That was unbelievable.
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Half a point.
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And there was definitely an uptick in the deployment of RISC-V.
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Mm-hmm.
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Fair. Fair. Okay. All right. Well, Brantley, you win on a technicality. Congratulations.
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What are we doing?
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Wow.
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All right. I'm going to keep this. I'm going to keep track here. I'll keep track.
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All right. So, Brentley, you had a second prediction for us.
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You said in 2025, this was definitely going to happen.
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In 2025, the Ubuntu core desktop will be found as either a download on ubuntu.com
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slash download or as an Ubuntu flavor.
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I, this was like half prediction, half hope.
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I was really hoping this was going to happen for Ubuntu's future generally.
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I don't know if our wish casting generally works or does it?
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It does not seem to work.
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I know. That's where I trip up on my predictions is I just put in my own desires
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in there. And sometimes they happen and most of the time they don't.
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Here's the deal, ref. I looked it up. No, it is not downloadable on Ubuntu.com.
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The traditional Ubuntu desktop release is shipped as scheduled,
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but the ubuntu desktop that is the ubuntu core version and immutable snap only
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version of the os did not graduate to a standard download option and is still
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very much under development so i think that one's kind of a clear yeah loser yeah sorry brently no.
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It's fine i also have to add that,
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Given zero action last year, it felt like, on this, a micro prediction is that
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this year doesn't feel so good for this either.
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Does it?
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Okay, so zero points for that one. But let's see what your next one was,
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because maybe you had a vision for this next one. I was very impressed.
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In 2025, we will see a tech YouTuber of over a million subscribers do a iSwitched-style
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video for Linux, using it as their main desktop OS for a period of time.
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Wow, did you nail that one. So, yeah.
00:11:12.097 --> 00:11:16.737
On April 26, 2025, PewDiePie, I installed Linux, and so should you.
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PewDiePie has 110 million subscribers, and as of this AM, the video has seen
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7.3 million views, and it's the third most popular Linux video on YouTube.
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Yeah. It took a couple months, but that was an early win.
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Very clear win.
00:11:37.717 --> 00:11:38.517
Wow, Brent.
00:11:38.517 --> 00:11:41.737
I mean, do we know that Brent and PewDiePie aren't friends, or there's some
00:11:41.737 --> 00:11:42.617
sort of back-channeling?
00:11:42.977 --> 00:11:48.797
Not only was there that, But then there was a kind of a secondary effect of
00:11:48.797 --> 00:11:51.437
many other YouTubers making Linux content as well.
00:11:52.437 --> 00:11:57.277
Lots of reaction videos based on it, right? It was a whole hoopla there for a couple of weeks.
00:11:57.297 --> 00:11:58.077
In a way, you were not bullish enough.
00:12:00.137 --> 00:12:01.897
Okay. Congratulations, sir.
00:12:04.748 --> 00:12:11.528
So that's 1.5 points for Mr. Brentley, I believe. So not bad, Brent, not bad.
00:12:11.788 --> 00:12:14.528
Of a possible three points, is that it? So 50%.
00:12:14.528 --> 00:12:14.668
Yep.
00:12:15.068 --> 00:12:15.308
Yeah.
00:12:15.768 --> 00:12:16.248
I'll take it.
00:12:16.468 --> 00:12:20.148
Yeah, I mean, better than zero, as has been some of my years in the past.
00:12:20.948 --> 00:12:25.468
And that YouTuber one was great. All right, gentlemen, so it's my time to see how I did.
00:12:25.548 --> 00:12:25.948
You're up here.
00:12:26.308 --> 00:12:32.868
Mm-hmm, mm-hmm, mm-hmm. All right, so I said in 2025, this was my first prediction.
00:12:32.868 --> 00:12:34.208
And this was definitely going to happen.
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In 2025, inspired by NixOS, but not based on NixOS, a major distribution-based
00:12:41.628 --> 00:12:48.568
flavor, spin, or remix will ship a declarative configuration system for a reproducible system state.
00:12:48.768 --> 00:12:52.828
Now, there have been forks of NixOS, but I don't think that was my intention here.
00:12:53.908 --> 00:12:58.248
BlendOS is a thing, but I don't think that's probably a mainstream major distro.
00:12:58.768 --> 00:13:04.128
But I'm wondering what you guys think about OpenSUSE, because you have OpenSUSE, Aeon, and Kalpa.
00:13:05.493 --> 00:13:09.813
In 2025, they announced these two different variants, and they have doubled
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down on the zero-config declarative philosophy, they say.
00:13:12.773 --> 00:13:16.913
It's based on micro OS. It uses two specific tools to have declarative setups.
00:13:17.213 --> 00:13:20.593
You typically place these configuration files on a USB drive labeled ignition
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or combustion, and it does disk partitioning, rate arrays, creating users,
00:13:24.893 --> 00:13:26.973
writing files, system units, and software install.
00:13:27.253 --> 00:13:33.013
You do it with a human-readable butane YAML file, which is then compiled into
00:13:33.013 --> 00:13:35.033
a machine-readable ignition JSON file.
00:13:35.733 --> 00:13:39.973
And it can run any bash command, install any RPM package via whatever,
00:13:40.253 --> 00:13:42.913
transactional update, set up your networking, et cetera.
00:13:43.233 --> 00:13:47.393
So I think maybe you could argue that OpenSUSE is dabbling with this declarative setup.
00:13:47.573 --> 00:13:48.973
I have three questions.
00:13:49.133 --> 00:13:49.273
Okay.
00:13:49.293 --> 00:13:49.593
Three things.
00:13:49.833 --> 00:13:49.913
Fair.
00:13:50.233 --> 00:13:53.253
Well, I guess one of them is combined. So you made some notes here.
00:13:53.393 --> 00:13:59.293
The length of the notes combined with the fact that it's you talking about OpenSUSE
00:13:59.293 --> 00:14:02.073
makes it seem like a stretch automatically.
00:14:05.173 --> 00:14:08.873
my other question is like i don't think the ignition stuff is new i don't know
00:14:08.873 --> 00:14:13.253
about the butane so how much of this is a thing that was net new to 2025.
00:14:13.253 --> 00:14:18.233
Well the announcement of aeon and calpa was 2025.
00:14:18.233 --> 00:14:23.773
But was is the declarative or tech they're using well.
00:14:23.773 --> 00:14:28.753
No i don't think so But the distribution that uses the.
00:14:28.753 --> 00:14:29.573
Declarative tech was.
00:14:29.853 --> 00:14:35.733
Yeah. The wording is a major distribution-based flavor or spin or remix will
00:14:35.733 --> 00:14:38.053
ship a declarative configuration system.
00:14:38.253 --> 00:14:40.293
So it only had to ship in this year.
00:14:40.713 --> 00:14:42.173
Okay. Questions.
00:14:42.953 --> 00:14:43.773
All right. What do you think, though?
00:14:44.273 --> 00:14:45.833
Can I download this today?
00:14:46.493 --> 00:14:47.593
Yes, you can.
00:14:47.773 --> 00:14:52.633
Okay. Yeah. So ignition files are not a new thing at all.
00:14:53.213 --> 00:14:54.073
No. No.
00:14:54.073 --> 00:14:58.513
I mean, Cloud in it and the like are...
00:14:59.600 --> 00:15:04.420
Very old but this is this also gives you desktop zero config declarative desktop
00:15:04.420 --> 00:15:09.380
open source setup yeah it's like they're silver blue you could maybe kind of well.
00:15:09.380 --> 00:15:11.860
That's okay see that seems yeah
00:15:11.860 --> 00:15:14.520
i do think maybe you might have to install this on airmaster if you get.
00:15:14.520 --> 00:15:14.880
The point.
00:15:18.860 --> 00:15:26.680
All right so calpa and aon are brand new for 2025 using these ignition setups.
00:15:26.680 --> 00:15:30.540
And butane yeah yeah butane and ignition yeah sure.
00:15:30.540 --> 00:15:32.720
Well you can't have ignition without the fuel source.
00:15:32.720 --> 00:15:35.500
Right see you get it yeah see they're good at naming.
00:15:36.778 --> 00:15:37.638
I'm fine with it.
00:15:38.558 --> 00:15:40.338
Oh! Yes!
00:15:40.738 --> 00:15:40.918
Yeah.
00:15:41.138 --> 00:15:43.978
One point. All right, one point for me. That was a hard point I had to earn,
00:15:44.058 --> 00:15:46.398
but I'm going to take it. I had to work for that one. Yeah.
00:15:46.538 --> 00:15:47.838