Burned by AI
Jan 11, 2026
The storage apocalypse has arrived. An old friend drops by to talk survival strategies as prices explode, and we pitch our own unapologetically 90s approach to stretching storage.
Sponsored By:
- Managed Nebula: Meet Managed Nebula from Defined Networking. A decentralized VPN built on the open-source Nebula platform that we love.
- CrowdHealth: Discover a Better Way to Pay for Healthcare with Crowdfunded Memberships. Join CrowdHealth to get started today for $99 for your first three months using UNPLUGGED.
Links:
- 💥 Gets Sats Quick and Easy with Strike
- 📻 LINUX Unplugged on Fountain.FM
- PlanetNix 2026 — Where Nix Builders Come Together
- Planet Nix 2026: Call for Proposals
- SCaLE 23x | Registration
- LinuxFest Northwest 2026: Call for Speakers
- Michael Tunnell - YouTube
- TuxDigital
- LINUX Unplugged 596: Perilously Pontificated Predictions
- Phison CEO: SSD "Pricing Apocalypse" to Continue Through 2027
- HDD Prices Spike as AI Infrastructure and China’s PC Push Collide
- 2025 Cloud Pricing Trends: Big Three Shake Up Storage Costs
- Storage Apocalypse: Why SSDs and HDDs Are Becoming Impossibly Expensive
- Jensen Huang Flagged Data Storage as the Next AI Bottleneck
- Manufacturer Recertified Drives - ServerPartDeals.com
- Hard Disk Prices (US)
- Storage Price Tracker
- RackRat - eBay Rackmount Server Deal Finder
- r/HomelabSales$£€ - Reddit
- Smart Buy 10 Pack Bd-r Dl 50gb 6X Blu-ray Double Layer Recordable Disc
- BlueVault — A top-quality TUI app to manage Blu-ray cold storage archives on Linux.
- Pick: Kopia — Cross-platform backup tool for Windows, macOS & Linux with fast, incremental backups, client-side end-to-end encryption, compression and data deduplication. CLI and GUI included.
- Kopia Repository Server
- Pick: PowerISO — Create, Burn, Mount, Edit, Compress, Encrypt, Split, Extract ISO file, ISO/BIN converter, Virtual Drive
- PowerISO on Flathub
- Pick: CDEmu — CDemu is a software suite designed to emulate an optical drive and disc on the Linux operating system.
- Tellico — Collection management software, free and simple.
Transcript
WEBVTT
00:00:11.309 --> 00:00:15.809
Hello, friends, and welcome back to your weekly Linux talk show. My name is Chris.
00:00:15.969 --> 00:00:16.589
My name is Wes.
00:00:16.889 --> 00:00:17.909
And my name is Brent.
00:00:18.269 --> 00:00:24.489
Hello, gentlemen. Well, coming up on the show today, it does seem to be the storage apocalypse.
00:00:25.029 --> 00:00:28.549
It's here. It's real. And an old friend's going to drop by to talk survival
00:00:28.549 --> 00:00:30.009
strategies as prices explode.
00:00:30.169 --> 00:00:35.509
And then we've got an unapologetically 90s approach to stretching your current storage.
00:00:35.709 --> 00:00:39.509
Sometimes the old way of doing things still makes sense. They're going to round
00:00:39.509 --> 00:00:42.009
it out with some booths, some picks, and a lot more.
00:00:42.169 --> 00:00:46.089
So before we get there, let's say time-appropriate greetings to our virtual
00:00:46.089 --> 00:00:47.289
lug. Hello, Mumble Room!
00:00:48.529 --> 00:00:50.769
Hey, Chris, hey, Wes, and hello, Brent.
00:00:51.349 --> 00:00:55.389
And let's say hello to that old friend from Tux Digital and this week in Linux,
00:00:55.869 --> 00:00:57.189
Michael Tunnellsbeck. Hello, Michael.
00:00:57.629 --> 00:00:58.749
Hello, everybody.
00:00:59.029 --> 00:01:00.109
It's good to see you.
00:01:00.749 --> 00:01:01.749
Yeah, it's been a while.
00:01:01.969 --> 00:01:06.409
Yeah, we didn't get a chance to see you for our predictions episode because
00:01:06.409 --> 00:01:08.029
you were under the weather. But you're back?
00:01:08.709 --> 00:01:13.269
Not speak so that was that was a bummer because uh i enjoy being the referee you.
00:01:13.269 --> 00:01:15.989
Know yeah well maybe we'll pick it back up next
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year but it's good to see and i think we should maybe we could chat in just
00:01:19.489 --> 00:01:22.569
a moment on a couple of those predictions i mean we might have them here so
00:01:22.569 --> 00:01:28.049
if we wanted to look at them in a moment we could before we get there i want
00:01:28.049 --> 00:01:32.069
to say good morning to our friends over at defined networking go check out manage
00:01:32.069 --> 00:01:35.609
nebula at define.net slash unplugged Now,
00:01:35.709 --> 00:01:38.429
you want a beautiful mesh VPN network these days.
00:01:38.609 --> 00:01:41.029
Everybody knows that because the benefits are incredible. I mean,
00:01:41.109 --> 00:01:44.909
you can connect data centers across multiple different providers and regions,
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your mobile devices, your workstations, your development machines,
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your production machines, and you can create all kinds of privacy with this
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that is just absolutely unbeatable. I mean, I think people understand that.
00:01:54.268 --> 00:01:57.468
But which one is actually the right one to choose? And I say you have to check
00:01:57.468 --> 00:01:59.828
out Define a .NET slash Unplugged.
00:01:59.908 --> 00:02:03.388
It's a decentralized VPN built on the open source Nebula project.
00:02:03.908 --> 00:02:08.388
It's all open source. Top to bottom, if you want to self-host every single component,
00:02:08.388 --> 00:02:10.688
it will always be that way because that's how they build it.
00:02:10.868 --> 00:02:12.868
You want to know what feature's coming down the road?
00:02:13.108 --> 00:02:15.408
Go watch the development right there out in the open on GitHub.
00:02:16.128 --> 00:02:20.548
And then later on, if you decide, I want to completely take this over myself,
00:02:20.548 --> 00:02:22.868
you absolutely can, including some of the essential services.
00:02:22.868 --> 00:02:27.748
But what I think is great is they offer the managed Nebula product so you can get started.
00:02:27.928 --> 00:02:31.468
They host the tough stuff. They do all of that. Later on, if you want to own
00:02:31.468 --> 00:02:35.068
the authentication and you want to own the discovery and all of that, you absolutely can.
00:02:35.668 --> 00:02:38.908
Nebula's decentralized design means there's no single point of failure.
00:02:39.108 --> 00:02:43.608
There's nothing that can happen like on their back end because you can host everything.
00:02:43.808 --> 00:02:46.608
And when you're building something that you want to last five years,
00:02:46.788 --> 00:02:48.448
10 years, you got to think about that.
00:02:48.788 --> 00:02:52.288
It was also from the get-go designed to manage Slack's global infrastructure.
00:02:52.288 --> 00:02:55.148
So you know it's tight, it's powerful, it's super advanced.
00:02:55.328 --> 00:02:57.948
I could tell you all about it, but I think you should go check it out.
00:02:58.028 --> 00:03:00.868
You can get 100 hosts for free, no credit card required, no lock-in,
00:03:00.948 --> 00:03:03.848
define.net slash unplugged. You start with that, then later on you want to go
00:03:03.848 --> 00:03:05.648
set up your own lighthouses? You absolutely can.
00:03:06.848 --> 00:03:10.508
There's no problem. There's no conflict there where you're like part of a big sales funnel.
00:03:10.608 --> 00:03:14.468
Like it's such a great thing because we have heard from so many people out there
00:03:14.468 --> 00:03:17.048
that have deployed it, and they absolutely have been thrilled.
00:03:18.108 --> 00:03:21.348
And probably going to have a little bit more from my end next week. So check it out.
00:03:21.488 --> 00:03:25.548
Go get started. support the show at defined.net slash unplugged.
00:03:25.608 --> 00:03:29.208
And a big thank you to defined.net for sponsoring the Unplugged program.
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Gentlemen, we are on like Donkey Kong for Planet Nix. Get ready. We're going.
00:03:40.285 --> 00:03:43.545
Phlox is helping make it possible again this year. You know Phlox.
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They're focused on making reproducible dev environments actually usable.
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And they're facilitating our trip and Planet Nix. We will have a meetup.
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I think year two is going to be fantastic.
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The call for papers for Planet Nix ends very soon.
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January 15th. So if you're listening to it when this comes out,
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you got a few days. Jan 15th.
00:04:02.925 --> 00:04:07.205
We'll put a link in the show notes. To attend Planet Nix, you need to register for Scale.
00:04:07.445 --> 00:04:11.425
So we'll put a link in there, too. We have a promo code. The promo code is UNPLUG,
00:04:11.625 --> 00:04:15.725
U-N-P-L-G, UNPLUG, and you'll get 40% off your ticket.
00:04:17.105 --> 00:04:21.485
And the remaining value goes to support one of the best open source conferences out there.
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Yeah, and you get access to both Planet Nix and Scale.
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And the expo hall and all the other talks. There's a lot.
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UNPLUG, U-N-P-L-G. We'll have a link to that. We want to see you there.
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This, you know, I think year one of Planet Nix.
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Is this a thing? Is this possible? Can they pull this off?
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Establish it? Yes. Did people like it? We loved it.
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All right, we're doing it again. Now, this year, I think it's going to be a
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lot about building things, talking to people, like people who don't normally
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sit in the same room together, but also still use the same stuff they create. A lot of that.
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And I think it's also going to just pull them or just lead right in to a great scale.
00:04:59.125 --> 00:05:02.845
So why not make it to both? And then just shortly after that,
00:05:04.085 --> 00:05:09.705
LinuxFest Northwest, April 24th to the 26th, back at the Bellingham Technical
00:05:09.705 --> 00:05:12.245
College in the original large expo room.
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Oh.
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Back in the nice area. It's all fixed up. And the LinuxFest Northwest call for
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papers ends tomorrow. Tomorrow.
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at midnight, Monday, January 12th, at midnight. So get it in.
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No promo code for LinuxFest Northwest because it's free.
00:05:28.177 --> 00:05:31.297
Although you can give them a little donation if you want to help support a great event.
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We'll have links to the LinuxFest Northwest call for papers as well. So there you go.
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Planet Nix and Scale. That's happening in March, March 5th through the 6th in
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Pasadena, California. We'd love to see you there.
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And then a little bit after that, LinuxFest Northwest, April 24th through the
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26th. things are shaping up to be a beautiful spring a warm beautiful spring
00:05:52.137 --> 00:05:56.557
in the pacific northwest and then they're saying a hot summer you know have you seen this no.
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I have not.
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Yeah we got a nino transition it's fading out uh you know of dominance as they
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say uh-huh which means it should be a beautiful linux fest northwest so we'd
00:06:05.997 --> 00:06:07.297
love to see you plenty of time to plan.
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Right come on we're telling you now.
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Yep and all the lazy links are in the show notes,
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Well, I just wanted to say a big welcome back to Michael. It's nice to see you,
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sir. Thank you again for making it.
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Thanks for having me.
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Would you love to go back in time and see how you did? I mean,
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would you just love it? Would you just be thrilled? I would love it.
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Actually, I don't remember most of what I said. I remember one of them,
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and I think I was right. And the other ones, I don't remember at all.
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I mean, I did. I don't remember them specifically. But when we were prepping
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for the episode, I reviewed them. And I think you did OK.
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Yeah, I think you'll be pleasantly surprised by yourself.
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So, here was Michael's first prediction for 2025.
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I predict that the Cosmic desktop from System76 will make at least a release
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candidate version available in 2025.
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I mean, they made that.
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I was very right.
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Nice. Not bad.
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I forgot about that one entirely.
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You're too busy playing with Cosmic.
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That only really came later in the year.
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Yeah, it was like three weeks before the end of the year. and then like nice yeah.
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All right here was prediction number two for 2025 i.
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Predict that the linux desktop market share will become five percent some point this year.
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I think that one was right too right like everything we can.
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Measure with.
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Seems like that seems like it hit which is.
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Yeah i was i was super shocked uh because that's the one i remembered i was
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like uh because i remember saying like because it was expected to go to four
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and i was like you know i'll just do five anyway and then that actually happened
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it's like wow how was i right okay awesome well.
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You know what i want to know is do you have a prediction for 2026.
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I should but in terms of market share i think it's going to go up to i'm going
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to go ahead and say an extra two percent and say seven all.
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Right all right i like that that was bold all right are you ready for your third and last prediction.
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Yes here.
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We go i predict that in 2025 kde will release a specific desktop operating system
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of their own, regardless of what it's named,
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KDE Linux or not, and it will be at least at a beta release level.
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Now, I don't know. I don't know if they've actually hit beta, have they?
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No, I think I was wrong on that one. I think they hit alpha, not beta.
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Yeah, right.
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That's a bummer. I almost got perfect.
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Okay, here's just a bonus prediction. Do you think they'll hit a 1.0 in 2026?
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I think towards the end of the year, maybe. Yeah. I don't think it's going to
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be anytime soon, but I think they've made a lot of progress.
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I think they've made a lot of progress, enough where they could get to the the
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like I don't know November December era yeah.
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I hope so.
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Although didn't I see they're like doing some debates about sort of the underpinnings
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and should they stick with their like arch sort of inspired thing or adopt other.
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Yeah I think that there's actually potential where they could you know do a
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combination of things like,
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a lot of the effort in the Universal Blue project is super
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interesting because there's there's some effort to make it
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distro-less and that by that meaning um
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it doesn't matter what it's sitting on top of like the
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you could switch out the underneath you know
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fairly easily like just how you can like image mode you can
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switch the desktops pretty quickly it would be uh possible to switch arch to
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fedora or back and forth rebase the base yeah but also the user could do it
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like not even like it's great all you have to do is set up the image mode to
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have that compatibility and it'd be theoretically possible to do that.
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Swap that layer out, huh?
00:09:39.886 --> 00:09:42.506
Yeah, that could also solve that problem. Who knows?
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Wouldn't that be interesting? I'm just thinking about the way OEMs could use that.
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I think the last 10% of KDE Linux is going to be the toughest. So that...
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It might push a 1.0 out to Q1 of 2027. And I don't think that'd be a shame.
00:10:00.876 --> 00:10:04.416
Honestly, I feel like it might be a 1.0 that's not a 1.0.
00:10:04.736 --> 00:10:05.456
Oh, it could be, yeah.
00:10:05.736 --> 00:10:12.356
Yeah. So, like, for example, Cosmix. Cosmix 1.0 was not really ready.
00:10:12.576 --> 00:10:15.656
Like, it's cool. There's a lot of good stuff.
00:10:15.796 --> 00:10:21.656
But there's still some pretty noticeable bugs that would not really count as a 1.0 in that sense.
00:10:21.656 --> 00:10:24.656
And in our space, there is some value to getting it out there in front of users
00:10:24.656 --> 00:10:26.196
and starting to get that feedback.
00:10:26.596 --> 00:10:30.716
Yeah. I also just feel like the idea of the 1.0 is, you know,
00:10:30.796 --> 00:10:34.716
like the version number mattering is like antiquated and no longer matters.
00:10:35.096 --> 00:10:39.796
Like it's like when people talk about like the next version of Linux,
00:10:40.056 --> 00:10:43.056
you know, like Linux 7 is going to come out sometime soon.
00:10:43.876 --> 00:10:48.056
And they're like, well, why is it going to 7? Well, arbitrary number count.
00:10:48.376 --> 00:10:51.496
Like who cares? like it doesn't it's not like they actually choose it for any
00:10:51.496 --> 00:10:56.276
particular reason it's just because they're tired of being six so like now it's seven they.
00:10:56.276 --> 00:10:58.596
Choose it because west predicted it that's usually how it goes.
00:10:58.596 --> 00:11:00.456
Well that that also helps too yeah.
00:11:00.456 --> 00:11:04.596
You know back in my day a point release was like a sign of perhaps a compatibility
00:11:04.596 --> 00:11:06.896
break or a major new feature set.
00:11:06.896 --> 00:11:07.576
Yeah it's.
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Just sort of lost its meaning in that sense.
00:11:09.076 --> 00:11:14.276
Yeah and the major minor bug thing is gone too like it some people use it but
00:11:14.276 --> 00:11:20.676
it also doesn't matter anymore yeah so like uh ubuntu helped create that to go away with the dates.
00:11:21.276 --> 00:11:24.596
So now we have like the major minor, but it's really just like,
00:11:24.716 --> 00:11:25.576
it's an update. Who cares?
00:11:26.076 --> 00:11:29.656
Yeah, I wonder, one day we'll have Linux 2810. Linux, you know,
00:11:29.776 --> 00:11:31.096
whatever. Whatever we'll have.
00:11:31.796 --> 00:11:35.796
All right, well, we are gathered here today because we, as a world,
00:11:37.976 --> 00:11:43.876
of technology enthusiasts, are faced with the plight of incredibly high storage prices.
00:11:45.116 --> 00:11:48.216
I really missed the boat on this one. I don't know how many of you were feeling
00:11:48.216 --> 00:11:51.616
this way, but I, of course, was, if you guys remember, we were talking about
00:11:51.616 --> 00:11:54.976
low power home labs towards the end of last year, started around October, November.
00:11:56.611 --> 00:12:00.451
Boy, should I have bought then. So I did a little digging before the show,
00:12:00.571 --> 00:12:04.931
guys, and it's real bad out there. So...
00:12:06.460 --> 00:12:13.720
The worst price increases seem to be in like the kind of nicer SSDs and MVMEs
00:12:13.720 --> 00:12:15.700
in the two terabyte and up range.
00:12:15.920 --> 00:12:18.960
I don't see a lot of punishment in the one terabyte. But for example,
00:12:19.060 --> 00:12:27.600
the Western Digital Black SN850X two terabyte drive is up 80 percent since October. Since October.
00:12:27.900 --> 00:12:28.600
Since October.
00:12:29.120 --> 00:12:32.800
That's not 10 percent. That's not 20 percent. No. Over 50 percent.
00:12:32.920 --> 00:12:35.420
And because I'm in a moving vehicle, I was looking for solid state.
00:12:35.420 --> 00:12:39.660
So I at first had my eye on an 8-terabyte NVMe, which would be just enough.
00:12:39.800 --> 00:12:41.080
And that thing went from it.
00:12:41.120 --> 00:12:42.100
I mean, that sounds expensive already.
00:12:42.340 --> 00:12:47.280
Yeah. But I think it was like $700, $800. And now it's between $14 and $1,600
00:12:47.280 --> 00:12:48.400
depending on the vendor.
00:12:49.540 --> 00:12:49.980
Wow.
00:12:50.480 --> 00:12:51.580
And the other thing is.
00:12:51.880 --> 00:12:53.480
Do I want a laptop or a hard drive?
00:12:53.700 --> 00:12:58.600
The number of vendors even supplying to the consumer market is less.
00:12:58.600 --> 00:13:04.600
I did a little comparison shopping on Camel, Camel, Camel of SSD vendors selling
00:13:04.600 --> 00:13:10.900
two terabyte drives back in October, and there were probably 30 of them. And now there's two.
00:13:11.860 --> 00:13:14.860
So it's brutal out there.
00:13:15.140 --> 00:13:18.660
And it's just gone from something that was kind of cheap to just this precious
00:13:18.660 --> 00:13:23.840
commodity, obviously because enterprise data centers, those types of AI jobs,
00:13:23.960 --> 00:13:24.900
they're all eating up storage.
00:13:25.060 --> 00:13:28.700
They're buying inventory before they've even been produced. Some of these vendors
00:13:28.700 --> 00:13:32.800
are making exclusivity deals with these larger data centers to provide them
00:13:32.800 --> 00:13:34.640
with, you know, their storage chips.
00:13:35.400 --> 00:13:40.960
So I think each one of us have probably been thinking about this problem a little bit.
00:13:41.340 --> 00:13:44.220
I don't know if anybody – you know, we always are – our storage needs are always growing.
00:13:44.400 --> 00:13:47.580
So I thought we'd go around the horn and kind of talk about if we had any ideas
00:13:47.580 --> 00:13:54.760
for sort of stretching out or getting cheap storage for 2026, maybe even into 2027.
00:13:54.760 --> 00:13:59.720
Some of the things I was looking at here suggest we already have back orders
00:13:59.720 --> 00:14:05.260
now on the books up to 24 months from the AI data centers.
00:14:06.515 --> 00:14:11.075
And so they are going to be filling the data center inventory for 24 months
00:14:11.075 --> 00:14:12.995
at least, and that's the existing back.
00:14:13.055 --> 00:14:16.535
Now, some of that might get canceled if things decline or whatever,
00:14:16.535 --> 00:14:22.575
but the projection is at least until 2027, we're going to have a massive crunch in storage prices.
00:14:24.095 --> 00:14:28.595
So, Michael, do you have any thoughts on ways to stretch your existing storage
00:14:28.595 --> 00:14:30.575
or cheap storage acquisition strategies?
00:14:30.895 --> 00:14:32.955
Are you going to be shucking USB disks?
00:14:33.115 --> 00:14:34.875
Do you have any hard drives we can have?
00:14:36.695 --> 00:14:39.475
So actually as you were talking about it i was thinking about it
00:14:39.475 --> 00:14:42.235
and uh you got that
00:14:42.235 --> 00:14:45.095
sweet storage i i was actually thinking about
00:14:45.095 --> 00:14:48.355
it as you were mentioning you were describing this problem and i was thinking
00:14:48.355 --> 00:14:53.495
like you know at this point ssds are probably around the same or if not more
00:14:53.495 --> 00:14:59.055
value than gold so so i was thinking like maybe i should sell some of my ssds
00:14:59.055 --> 00:15:03.675